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          家紡網
          首頁 > 行業 > 資訊 > 股市 > 富安娜 家紡復蘇&家具有序推進

          富安娜 家紡復蘇&家具有序推進

           2018-1-10

            公司公告順利通過高新企業認定,17-19年享受15%的優惠所得稅率。考慮到家紡主業線下銷售Q4在、受冷冬天氣刺激,收入增長提升至20%+,呈現逐季回暖趨勢,且線上保持40%+的快速增長,而18年春夏訂貨會實現10%的增長對今年家紡業務復蘇的持續性起到一定支撐。此外,家具業務20家直營門店開業及裝修有序推進,18年加盟商的引進有望進一步加大后期收入彈性。盈利方面,在提價背景下家紡毛利率存在小幅提升的空間,但家具直營店建設將使費用投入略有提升,預計18年利潤增速緩于收入。目前公司總市值89億,對應18PE16X,目前股東減持完畢,加盟商持股計劃順利推進中,可繼續持有。

            高新認定落地,所得稅率優惠提升業績彈性。公司公告,獲得2017年高新技術企業認定,2017-2019年三年內享受15%的高新技術企業所得稅率優惠。

            17年家紡主業線上增速加快,線下Q4回暖趨勢加強,18春夏訂貨會增長對家紡業務復蘇的持續性起到一定支撐作用。1)公司電商業務在線上流量向知名品牌商集中趨勢下,積極優化產品結構、提升客戶體驗、拓展新渠道(京東、唯品會、微商),預計17年線上收入增速有望超過40%。2)線下門店17年上半年加盟轉直營負面因素逐漸弱化,下半年加強對導購員激勵,關閉低效虧損門店,以及對部分門店進行翻新,于8月份開始同店收入增速轉正,Q4收入增速超20%。3)受需求端弱復蘇以及原材料價格上漲因素影響,17年以來新品及老品均有個位數幅度提價,有效傳導成本壓力,18年提價預期猶存。4)歷經5年的行業調整后,加盟商渠道庫存逐漸出清,18年春夏訂貨會訂貨額同比增長10%。5)我們預計18年家紡業務在內生成長力提升,以及適度外延擴張等因素驅動下,全年有望實現雙位數增長。

            家具業務有序推進,18年加盟商的引進有望加強收入彈性,但直營門店建設使費用投入加大。富安娜(002327)全屋定制家具設計感較強,生產工業行業領先,客戶認可度較高。目前廣東惠東、深圳龍華、江蘇常熟的德國豪邁生產線均已投產,位于深圳和西安的4家直營店也已開業,13家在裝修中,預計18年春節前后開業。18年計劃在經營業績突出的100家700平米家紡門店中引入家具業務,同時新開100家家居加盟店,收入彈性有望顯著增加。費用方面,因17年20家直營門店大部分費用要在18年確認,因此18年費用支出壓力較大。

            盈利預測和投資評級:消費升級趨勢下,市場份額向知名品牌集中趨勢愈發明顯,在品牌商提升產品品質、豐富產品品類、提升供應鏈效率、優化渠道結構、加強營銷推廣等變革措施下,羅萊、富安娜、夢潔家紡業務自17年下半年后均有不同程度的復蘇。

            考慮到富安娜正處于新老業務銜接的過渡階段,大家居新業務正處于培育期,預計加盟商的引進有望進一步加大后期收入彈性,但直營旗艦店的建設將使費用階段性承壓,18年利潤增速或緩于收入。考慮所得稅優惠以及家紡業務復蘇因素,上調17-19年EPS分別至0.56、0.65、0.74元。目前公司總市值89億,對應18PE16X,目前股東減持完畢,加盟商持股計劃順利推進中,可繼續持有,維持"強烈推薦-A"評級。

            風險提示:1)消費環境持續低迷;2)大家居培育不及預期;3)培育直營定制家具業務,費用增加的風險。

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