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          家紡網
          首頁 > 行業 > 資訊 > 股市 > 水星家紡:線上增速領先,加盟模式推動線下加速增長

          水星家紡:線上增速領先,加盟模式推動線下加速增長

           2018-1-25

            受益于需求端的回暖,本輪家紡行業的復蘇在經歷內部優化、調整之后具有較強的可持續性,行業內品牌集中度持續提升的趨勢顯著利好龍頭。家紡行業是從2016年年底初見復蘇拐點的,直到2017年復蘇趨勢得到了進一步的確認。截止2017的第三季度,1916家規模以上家紡企業實現主營業務收入2142.97億元,同比增長10.54%。實現利潤總額115.54億元,同比增長8.57%。主營收入和利潤總額的增速分別較上年同期提高了7.48個百分點和1.49個百分點,因此自2016年以來,家紡行業回暖趨勢較為明顯。我們認為此輪家紡行業性回暖的背后主要還是受到需求復蘇的支撐,需求的復蘇具體體現在以下幾個方面:百貨渠道復蘇對線下家紡消費總量的推動、地產后周期因素對喬遷需求的推動、酒店行業的加速發展對床上用品規模總量的推動、居民功能性消費支出的提升、婚慶需求的相繼釋放以及二胎政策的有效拉動。除了需求復蘇對家紡行業規模總量的推動之外,我們認為此輪行業復蘇具有兩個差異化的地方:第一、行業內部的業績分化差距較大,并且品牌集中度呈現持續提升的狀態,第二、龍頭企業已經理順了線上和線下的關系,從而避免了2013-2015年行業低迷期出現的線上沖擊線下的問題。因此,我們認為此輪復蘇除了需求拉動之外,與之對應的還有行業內部的持續調整與優化以及公司對門店經營管理的能力及渠道質量的不斷改善。預期本輪復蘇的可持續性會比較確定并且龍頭的受益程度會格外明顯。具體來說,品牌集中度加速提升的趨勢主要可以結合2016年行業內1916家家紡企業的業績增長情況來看,業內54%的家紡企業收入增速呈現下滑趨勢,46%的家紡企業收入增速呈現提升趨勢,對應行業平均增長水平5.62%來看,富安娜、羅萊生活及水星家紡基本保持8%-10%的收入增速,顯著高于行業平均水平3-5個點。在業內業績分化差距逐漸拉大并且龍頭收入增速領先優勢較為突出的情況之下,可以說明家紡行業的品牌集中度正在持續提升,那么龍頭在此輪行業復蘇的過程中會更加受益。此外,此輪復蘇對線上和線下關系的處理具體體現在羅萊和富安娜的線上產品主要以更新、置換需求為主,而線下產品主要以喬遷和婚慶的需求為主。而水星的策略則略有不同,線上主要以一、二線的客戶群體為主,線下以三、四線的客戶群體為主。由此可見,在行業復蘇的基礎之上疊加龍頭品牌集中度提升的影響,再結合上市公司對渠道的調整優化及差異化的定位舉措來看,預期此輪復蘇的基礎更為扎實且具有較強的可持續性。

            水星的電商業務具有高占比及高毛利率的特點,線上增速的不斷加快將帶動綜合毛利率的持續提升。從水星家紡2014-2016年主營業務收入和歸母凈利潤的復合增速來看,分別對應5.52%和30.95%,這主要因為線上業務的加速增長所致。水星家紡2017年上半年電商業務的收入占比已提升至41%,顯著高于同期富安娜、羅萊生活電商收入占比所對應的28%和30%。對應2017年上半年,羅萊生活的線上品牌LOVO的收入增速高達60%,水星家紡的電商收入增速為84.9%,富安娜的電商收入增速為46.8%。與同業相比而言,水星的電商業務預計2017年全年的增速處于40%-50%之間,發展較為迅速且增速領先于同業。并且與羅萊和富安娜不同的是,水星的線上毛利率高于線下毛利率,2017H1水星線上的毛利率接近48%,線下的毛利率對應總經銷商渠道為26.78%、直屬加盟渠道為37.25%。根據公司線上銷售增速較快的發展趨勢來看,公司的綜合毛利率水平有望持續提升。而富安娜和羅萊的線上毛利率明顯低于線下,線上業務的加速發展,則會對綜合毛利率的提升產生一定的壓力,而水星則完全不同,這一點水星顯著優于同業。

            線下渠道以二、三線城市為主,以輕資產的加盟模式驅動,疊加新店擴張加速推進,線下業績穩健增長。公司目前具有2632家門店,在行業內規模領先優勢突出,并且門店的分布主要以二、三線城市為主,主打高性價比路線。在公司目前所擁有的2632家門店中加盟店有2539家,直營店有93家,加盟渠道的占比高達96.5%,對應羅萊和富安娜的加盟店占比來看,羅萊的加盟店占比為80%,富安娜的加盟店占比為60%,水星以加盟店為主的輕資產擴張戰略則更為顯著,結合家紡行業目前所處的階段來看,行業的上行周期對于加盟店占比更高的公司來說,業績彈性會更大,收入利潤增速提升的幅度則會更加顯著。此外,水星的線上、線下的人群呈現錯位明顯的狀態,線上的客群主要以一、二線城市的消費者群體為主,線下的客群主要以三、四線城市的消費者群體為主。結合水星價格帶略低于同業以及加盟渠道占比高的特性來看,雖然毛利率低于羅萊和富安娜,但水星擁有高于同業的存貨周轉率和應收賬款周轉率,這主要因為公司充分利用ERP及大數據系統實時關注產品的增長率、銷售排名等數據指標的變化,制定了相應的數據模型,實時調整運營策略,從而實現了庫存的快速周轉。2018年公司會繼續開出100家加盟店,并且每年保持400-500家的動態調整,區域分布上會以二、三線城市的鞏固和加密為主,同時會加密市場空白區域。我們預計2018年線下增速依然能保持20%以上。

            盈利預測和投資評級:我們預計公司2017-2019年的EPS分別為0.91元、1.11元和1.43元,對應的PE分別為25.55、20.95、16.26倍。未來看好在家紡行業持續復蘇的大背景之下,水星的線上業務具有顯著領先于同業的先發優勢,并且以二、三線城市為主導的線下渠道結構為后續的加速增長打下了良好的基礎,此外結合行業復蘇期的所處階段來看,以加盟門店為主導的渠道結構將會給水星帶來更大的業績彈性。因此,給予“買入”評級。

            風險提示:原材料價格大幅上漲的風險、渠道庫存積壓的風險、開店增速不及預期的風險、單店銷售收入低于預期的風險、開店增速及單店銷售額低于預期的風險。

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