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          家紡網
          首頁 > 行業 > 資訊 > 電商 > 南極電商:4年時間阿里平臺家紡銷售額第一

          南極電商:4年時間阿里平臺家紡銷售額第一

           2018-1-25

            我們仍較為看好南極電商的商業模式及其未來成長性,認為公司GMV及收入仍有望保持高速成長,貨幣化率(收入/GMV)有望保持相對穩定,終端GMV有望保持快速增長從而驅動營收利潤增長。

            南極電商的核心競爭力在于提升了整條產業鏈的效率。南極電商充分挖掘電商平臺流量紅利,利用自身品牌知名度,對供應商在產品生產、供應鏈服務上予以支持,對經銷商在店鋪運營、平臺導流上予以支持,迅速建立起了連通供應商與經銷商的生態體系,以線上超低加價倍率(1.5-2.5倍)高效運轉,依靠高性價比產品實現了快速的擴張。

            南極電商14年切入家紡行業,用4年時間將家紡類目做到近20億線上銷售額,進一步驗證了公司模式高效率、產品高性價比的優勢,為其未來其它類目及品牌的增長做出了示范作用。我們認為家紡品類的強勢增長,驗證了南極電商模式在除了內衣行業外的可復制性。目前,南極電商在母嬰、童裝、小家電、個人護理等類目亦增長迅速,不斷打開市場空間。同時,在品類拓展的基礎上,其在新平臺上如京東、拼多多等平臺也保持快速增長;另外,新品牌如卡帝樂在18、19年GMV增速仍有望在50%以上。多品類基礎上,多平臺、多品牌的發展,保證了公司未來的增長空間。

            針對市場擔憂的GMV與收入匹配度不夠問題,我們認為GMV的快速增長反應了公司的競爭力及優勢,有望拉動公司營收及利潤的增長,GMV與公司收入長期趨勢保持一致,貨幣化率有望維持相對穩定。由于受到季節性、工廠領標、營銷策略等多種因素的影響,GMV與收入不存在嚴格的照應關系,尤其是季度報表。南極電商GMV由經銷商銷售額直接決定,而南極電商的收入則主要來自于向工廠征收的品牌綜合服務費。

            盈利預測與估值:在電商行業以及阿里平臺GMV仍維持高速增長的情況下,南極電商憑借高效產業鏈組織,打造高性價比產品,挖掘流量紅利,多類目多品牌多平臺快速擴張,未來成長性較好。我們預計南極電商原業務17-19年可實現凈利潤5億、7.5億、10.5億,同比增長為66%、50%、40%。考慮到時間互聯的并表,我們預計18、19年公司整體凈利潤分別為8.7億、11.9億,同比增長47%,36%;對應18、19年估值分別為24倍、17倍。考慮到南極電商未來持續成長性良好,存在估值修復的空間,維持“買入”評級。

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